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Is there any game more hopelessly superstitious than trying to predict the date of Canada’s next federal election?
Because Canada’s parliamentary system ridiculously gives the prime minister of the country the authority to set the timing of his own re-election, Canadians are used to election calls occurring in perfect tandem with a moment of great polling success for the ruling party. And thus, with the Conservatives currently polling around 43% approval, the media has been more abuzz than ever with election speculation as of late.
This is also ridiculous, but under Canada’s delightful electoral system, a 43% rate of public support is usually enough to win over 50% of the seats in the House of Commons, and thus generate a powerful majority government. This is the great prize Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been slavishly coveting for so long, after years of toiling in frustration with his measly parliamentary plurality and its sometimes (shudder) uncertain legislative outcomes.
Unfortunately for the Prime Minister, however, the Canadian people are not total saps, and do in fact know an opportunistic, pointless election when they see one. Harper’s 2008 re-election campaign certainly fit that bill, and the public’s hesitancy to grant the man a second-term majority so soon after winning his first mandate, can be at least be partially attributed to voter frustration with a thoroughly unnecessary trip to the polls.
So Harper has a vested interest in trying to manufacture some sort of legitimate-seeming crisis to justify an election call, and this is where much of the media’s entrail-reading has been focused these days. Since a Canadian election can also be instigated through a parliamentary vote of no confidence, if Harper sufficiency pisses off the other parties, he can then provoke them into voting down some key piece of legislation, then call a snap election on the pretext that parliament has become “unworkable.”
This means we now have to attempt to read the minds of not just Harper, but also Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and NDP leader Jack Layton. Will they play along with Harper’s game of chicken? Or call his bluff?
The Conservatives are expected to table their sixth budget sometime this month, and already Harper has been going through the motions of meeting with opposition leaders in an effort to portray himself as a guy willing to “reach out” to partisan opponents. Whether or not Harper’s budget will actually wind up incorporating any NDP or Liberal proposals is another question altogether, however. Appearances tend to matter more than substance in the cynical world of politics, so as long as it looks like Harper at least tried to reach out… well, he’s got all the defensive campaign platform talking-points he needs in the event he ultimately decides to deliver a poison pill.
In any case, if Canada is to face an election in 2011 it will be entirely because some gang of politicians have deemed it in their best interest. Though it’s easy for Canadians to regard this whole crooked tradition with a sort of numb dejection — as we do with so many of the less attractive elements of our political system — the ongoing partisan manipulation of this country’s polling dates remains one of the most corrupt aspect of Canadian democracy, and one of the most justifiable cases for constitutional reform.
March 2nd, 2011 at 2:06 am
You mean the Canadian Parliament doesn't have an expiry date of five years?! Awesome! Finally something the UK Parliament does that it didn't copy off of the Canadian Parly!
March 2nd, 2011 at 2:49 am
It did until the "fixed election date" law that doesn't fix election dates. (Five years is still the maximum as written in whichever of the Constitution Acts, too.)
March 2nd, 2011 at 5:30 am
Hmm, what do the betting markets say? They are a pretty good predictor of these sorts of things
March 2nd, 2011 at 8:07 am
I have mixed feelings about fixed election dates, but you're absolutely right that allowing the government to 'choose' an election date is scummy. Electoral reform might help, but good luck getting the Liberals to sign off on that, at least not until they've been approaching a decade or so out of power.
Perhaps the solution is allowing the opposition parties (rather than the prime minsiter) the ability to choose when an election would occur? If the idea of responsible gov't holds that the government must hold the confidence of the house, then why not let the house (rather than the government) decide when they can no longer work with the ruling party, rather than the ruling party deciding when they can no longer work with the house? I guess in political terms, this would mean that opposition (rather than the gov't) decides what is or is not a vote of confidence.
Clearly such a solution can't be that simple, but I dunno. food for thought.
- Eddie
March 2nd, 2011 at 11:25 am
Yes, when in majority situation, a government is limited to a five year term.
J.J. is bashing the situation in a minority Parliament, where the government and opposition play a cat and mouse game of who is going to sink the ship first; either the by government (or more specifically the Prime Minister) in calling on the Governor General to dissolve Parliament and subsequently calling an election, or by the opposition in passing a motion of non-confidence or voting against a bill predetermined to test the confidence of the house – i.e.: the federal budget.
March 2nd, 2011 at 11:29 am
"Yes, when in majority situation, a government is limited to a five year term."
I should have added that this limit to a five year term also applies to a minority government, but it is virtually impossible for a minority government to last that long. More than 2 years of a minority government is already a miracle.
March 2nd, 2011 at 12:05 pm
I think you forgot a dartboard with dates written on it!
March 2nd, 2011 at 12:59 pm
There is a much simpler and more reasonable solution than that, and that is simply to get rid of confidence votes altogether. Parliament is given a 5 year fixed mandate and they have to work together, like it or not.
March 2nd, 2011 at 3:23 pm
It's a monarchy thing. Technically, the parliament sits at the "pleasure" of the monarch, and I guess in the old days, when monarchs were more erratic, they needed the power to dissolve parliament at any time.
Today, of course, the prime minister controls the Crown through the puppetry of the governor-general, so parliament now sits at the pleasure of the man who directly runs it.
March 2nd, 2011 at 9:56 pm
So then what's the problem? To be honest I've always been a little confused whenever J.J. brings up this topic because as far as I can tell it's basically the same as the Australian system with which I am familiar and it doesn't seem to be at all a problem here. Indeed, there's lately been a small controversy on the state level regarding NSW's fixed terms. Maybe the difference between 3 and 5 years really is large enough that the Canadian Prime Minister has magnitudes more flexibility than the Australian, or maybe it has to do with more powerful minor parties in Canada, but it's never seemed a problem over here.
March 3rd, 2011 at 10:21 am
I feel you've got sidetracked on a different issue than the one I was talking about.
My problem is that it's fundamentally corrupt for a government to be able to select the day of its own election. It manipulates what should be a neutral event for carefully calculated partisan advantage.
March 3rd, 2011 at 4:27 pm
But fixed election dates are not that simple in a minority situation. What are they going to do for 5 years when they can't get the votes needed to table a budget due to partisan nonsense? People may sigh and disparage minorities but the threat of an election gets parties to the table occasionally (even if occasionally involves parties simply not showing up to bargain).
I think that yes, giving the ability to call an election to the opposition (rather than the ruling party) wouldn't suddenly make passing budgets or other legislation easily and frictionless, but I'd rather put the ability to call an election in the hands of opposition than in the hands of the Prime Minister.
I mean, don't get me wrong, the real solution is electoral reform, but you'll never see that while any party has a shot at a majority government. Regardless, I would imagine letting the opposition truly 'choose' when to have an election has about as much a chance of happening as a PM actually following 'fixed' election dates.
- Eddie
March 3rd, 2011 at 8:11 pm
That's even better. It forces them to come up with a budget that is a compromise between different factions. In today's system a minority government can force its will on the entire Parliament by threatening elections at every turn. Well.. who says the government needs to make the budget, why can't Parliament do it? Is that really that radical?
March 4th, 2011 at 1:37 am
Exactly, it's called checks and balances. No one would seriously let five years pass without a budget. At some point a deal would have to be hammered out for the government to survive, and to prevent complete chaos.
If the government can't muster the votes to get something passed, then it needs to TRY HARDER. Confidence votes are really just an escape hatch that allows parties a convenient exit when they get tired of working together. The country would be much better suited by a system that makes bipartisanship a necessary component of governance, rather than something to only be used when convenient.
March 4th, 2011 at 2:35 am
Perhaps I did get sidetracked, but that was what I meant to begin with. The Australian government also selects the day of its own election, and most of the time they don't even get a chance to be corrupt about it. The closest situation in Australian political history to a government overtly manipulating the election date is Whitlam's failure to call an election he would have lost (and did lose, when he was dismissed and it was called anyway). Basically I'm surprised that the systems are so similar but you see a big problem in Canada that (as far as I can tell) doesn't exist in Australia.
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hmmm if only there was a republican form of government with checks and balance that encouraged bipartisanship I wonder what wonderful country it exists in
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