Filibuster Cartoons
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Of all the heated mid-term elections unfolding across the United States this fall, none have captured my imagination more than the race for governor of California. It’s a fascinating case study of remarkable variables and peculiarities, and will no doubt be analyzed by political scientists for many decades to come.
On the Republican side, we have Meg Whitman, the former CEO of Ebay. A run-of-the-mill moderate California conservative, in ordinary times she wouldn’t get much of a second look. But Meg is rich. Very very rich, in fact, and remarkably willing to spend in the pursuit of power. Last week Whitman made headlines as the “biggest self-funded candidate in US history,” or, in other words, the wealthiest American who has blown the largest chunk of his or her personal fortune on a single political campaign. The previous record holder had been Michael Bloomberg, the media mogul-cum-New York City mayor, who spent $110 million last year in his narrow bid for re-election. Meg’s tally is currently at $119 million.
Then on the Democratic side, we have Jerry Brown. Brown is probably one of the most famous politicians in California (if not US) history, and surely must be up for some sort of Guinness title for the sheer amount of elected offices he has either held or sought. He was already governor once before, a staggering 26 years ago, and since then he’s run for senate and president a couple of times (the latter inspiring a “Dead Kennedys” song), and was successfully elected mayor of Oakland in 1999, and later California attorney general in 2006. As far as state officials go, you can’t really get name recognition much higher than Jerry’s.
Brown is famously eccentric and frugal, however, and to date has spent less than $1 million on his campaign for a much-delayed third term as governor. By some estimates, his entire campaign has cost less than the Whitman campaign has spent on postage. And yet, he is still narrowly leading in the polls despite it all.
You can look at this data and draw a number of conclusions. Is Whitman coming on too strong? Does Brown have too much of a “establishment” head start for her to overcome? Could Brown’s lackadaisical under-campaigning ultimately prove just as harmful? If Meg wins, will anyone credit her victory to anything other than her money?
I know I have a lot of California readers, and I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this race. What do you think it says about politics in your state? Who do you think is going to win, and more importantly, why?
September 24th, 2010 at 11:30 pm
Our governor is on vacation shooting a movie and we're practically giving this position away!
September 25th, 2010 at 12:09 am
I'm from California! Here's my perspective on all this so far:
Jerry Brown has a habit of taking credit for things he wasn't really responsible for. One example I remember is from this year's online voter guide, in which he posits that college tuitions were in the thousands back when he was governor. Somehow, I doubt Jerry Brown was the root cause of college tuitions being cheaper in the 1970s. In addition, he's accumulated some pretty powerful enemies over his long career. A second gubernatorial career is going to be a pretty tough sell for a lot of democrats.
Whitman, on the other hand, has spent a lot of time and money on her campaign. It all seems really desperate on her part, and the democrats seem to be taking advantage of the massive Whitman budget by branding her as a Silicon Valley aristocrat who thinks she can buy the election with her fortune.
To be honest, I think it will come down to which party has a higher turnout, as well as who is more disliked come election day. Despite our reputation as America's western liberal haven, there's a considerable conservative base that can, and has been mobilized to shift the outcomes of elections. One recent example is Proposition 8.
September 25th, 2010 at 7:59 am
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September 25th, 2010 at 10:00 am
I don't think you can point to Prop 8's passing as a conservative litmus test. A lot of otherwise democratic christian voters supported Prop 8.
September 25th, 2010 at 11:41 am
As a Californian reader, I'm feeling hugely underwhelmed by the options. There was very little chance I would vote conservative from the onset, the last conservative governor I voted for was our current one, but my enthusiasm for Jerry Brown is seriously deflated. The most interesting thing about Jerry Brown is that with what limited funding he has deployed, its been deployed promoting tepid conservative talking points. The kind of lower taxes, less government platform with all the liberal flavor of tap water.
The whole bit of campaigning from both sides has a whiff of being knee-jerk and reactionary. I doubt there are many liberals here hunched over to conceal their tented pants for Jerry Brown. Meg Whitman is safely conservative, theres very little inside the usual liberal package that has much appeal to her, but aside from her money you're absolutely spot on saying she is an unremarkable candidate.
What is fairly silly about this whole thing is that, as far as state politics go, there are fifteen other things that dwarf the gubernatorial election, and to name a few:
The fact that we need filibuster proof majority to pass a state budget. When democrats took the senate it was a major headline that democrats now had a SUPER MAJORITY ZOMG!!! To pass a budget in California demands that phenomenon happen on a near annual basis. It's completely untenable and everyone knows it.
We can amend the State Constitution with a simple majority popular vote. The State Constitution is meant to be a living document and absolutely should be made available to change, but living document or not, it shouldn't be THAT lively. I'm not even bringing this up contextualized around the whole prop 8 boondoggle, but merely to contrast the role reversal that our State Constitution plays with the annual budget. The ideological tenants of justice for our state are more mailable and interchangeable than the budget????
Marijuana faces legalization for recreational purposes. No matter what side of that issue you fall on, it is impossible to ignore the enormity of it. It is probably the largest challenge to state rights of this generation. It would make California the only place in the entirely world where Marijuana is expressly legal (There are places in the world where Marijuana is implicitly legal, places in the world where it has been made legal as a function of protecting other political hotbuttons, but not even in Amsterdam is Marijuana a protected substance). Of note to the governor's race, neither candidate supports the measure.
September 25th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
That is indeed interesting, and explains why a candidate as "tired" as Brown could win the nomination basically uncontested. It does raise some serious questions about future governor races, though.
September 25th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
"It’s a fascinating case study of remarkable variables and peculiarities, and will no doubt be analyzed by political scientists for many decades to come."
Oh, really. I can say this much for certain: commentators have said things like that many, many times over the decades, and as you might expect, in the vast majority of cases, the subject matter is quickly forgotten.
Or alternatively, maybe it's just that no one pays the slightest attention to what political scientists spend their decades studying.
September 25th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Well, the fact that Meg Whitman has now spent the most money of any US candidate EVER makes this a more valuable case study than most. And people do pay attention to the theories of political scientists once in a while. You're probably familiar with the "Bradely effect," for instance, which was the result of another famous California election. And I could prattle off a number of candidates whose very names have become iconic due to the heavily analyzed nature of races they ran in: Goldwater, McGovern, Perot, Nader…. Pundits do throw around the label "historic" far too often, I grant, but that doesn't undermine the fact that some races are indeed precedent-setting in their abnormalities.
September 25th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
I just noticed that as I was writing about Meg Whitman being a fairly unremarkable politician with a historic bank account, I'll admit that idea is somewhat problematic as if that separation of character were so concrete, there is a Meg Whitman banner ad at the top of this page. Epic lawls.
September 26th, 2010 at 9:53 pm
A lot of registered Democrats who are actually conservatives (but can't admit it to themselves) supported Prop 8.
Isn't a proposition to legalize marijuana on the November ballot? If so that'll really help Brown, along with all the free media love.
October 19th, 2010 at 3:59 am
"You can look at this data and draw a number of conclusions. Is Whitman coming on too strong? Does Brown have too much of a “establishment” head start for her to overcome? Could Brown’s lackadaisical under-campaigning ultimately prove just as harmful? If Meg wins, will anyone credit her victory to anything other than her money?"
Maybe she just has less popular politics? Money is not EVERYTHING, not even in the US :)
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This may possibly be a well timed find. Just the thing I’m searching for. Thanks for making your effort from what might be a busy day (I’m presuming, you’re as busy as the rest of us). Appreciate your time and energy, It’s seriously valued.